On the eve of a diplomatic breakthrough, the bombs fell. What followed was not a war of necessity but a war of choice, lobbied into existence, launched in bad faith, and paid for in civilian lives.
The Place of Dates
Through the Strait of Hormuz — named either for the Zoroastrian god Ahura Mazda or the Persian phrase for ‘Place of Dates’ — flows 20% of the world’s oil. Or rather, it did. Iran has now reduced traffic by 97%. Urban Wronski traces the etymology, the date palm’s lessons in patience, and what empires learn the expensive way.
No Good Exit
Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the Trump administration has no exit strategy, no agreed objective, and a secretary of defence who believes God has a plan for the outcome. Inside the fractures, the contradictions, and the slow drift toward a quagmire nobody in Washington will name out loud. By Urban Wronski.
Don’t blame the organ-grinder; the monkey had a choice.
Trump didn’t stumble into the Iran disaster alone. Every catastrophe has its infrastructure – the courtiers, the flatterers, the transactionalists, the true believers, and the merely opportunistic who supplied the scaffolding. Bibi and MBS worked the organ grinders’ handles with professional dedication. But the monkey chose to dance. And in the corner, a daggy bloke from Cronulla was clapping.
The Fog of Holy War: How America and Israel Blundered Into a Conflict They Cannot Win, Cannot Define, and Cannot End
There is an old military principle, so obvious it barely needs stating: before you start a war, know what winning looks like. Know how it ends. Have a plan for the morning after. The United States and Israel, in launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran … Continue reading The Fog of Holy War: How America and Israel Blundered Into a Conflict They Cannot Win, Cannot Define, and Cannot End
No Exit
Jean-Paul Sartre wrote a play about three people locked in a room with an unlocked door nobody would walk through. He called it No Exit. He was writing about Operation Epic Fury seventy years before it happened. A forensic anatomy of a war built from mutual imprisonment, strategic miscalculation, and the fatal habit of assuming the other side thinks like us.
The Photo-Op Refugee: Australia’s Selective Compassion
Australia granted asylum to six Iranian footballers this week and the ministerial photographs were impeccable. Behind them sits a detention archipelago that cost taxpayers four million dollars per person per year to maintain, a Witness K prosecution that criminalised truth-telling, and legislation introduced the same week to ban entry to entire nationalities without individual assessment. Urban Wronski looks behind the photo opportunity.
The First Casualty
They told you Iran’s missiles were being swatted from the sky. They told you the Iron Dome was holding, the Patriot batteries were working, US and Israeli air power was surgical and winning. They told you this on the ABC. They told you this on Sky.
They were telling you nonsense.
MIT Professor Ted Postol — the man who proved the Patriot missile failed in the Gulf War while presidents were claiming a 97 percent success rate — has now established that current intercept rates against Iranian missiles run at a few percent at most. The systems are depleting. The decoys are multiplying. The official story is, in his own carefully chosen word, a fraud.
The first casualty of war is truth. But the deeper insight, the one Phillip Knightley identified fifty years ago, is that the lies are not random. They serve purposes. And right now, they are serving purposes that Australians have every right to examine.
Netanyahu, MBS, Putin and the Useful Idiot
Russia feeds Tehran American targeting intelligence. Netanyahu needs the war to continue. MBS counts his oil revenues. One hundred and seventy-five children were at school in Minab when the missile struck. The mathematics of this catastrophe have been visible from the start. That nobody in Washington appears to have done the sums is the most damning fact of all.
Trump, The Dealmaker’s Fatal Error
Trump demands unconditional surrender from a nation of 90 million. Iran elects a hardline new Supreme Leader and rules out any ceasefire. The MAGA
coalition fractures. What began as targeted strikes has become a war without an exit, a plan, or a president capable of admitting either.
Urban Wronski Writes 