Net Zero, poor thing, never stood a chance.

It began as a dry technical phrase in climate modelling and ended up as a punchline in Australian politics; mangled by MPs who wouldn’t know a carbon cycle from a spin cycle.

So what is Net Zero?

In the grown-up world; the world outside Sky News and coal donor boardrooms, Net Zero is quite simple:

You cut your actual emissions at source as close to zero as physically possible, then you use a tiny amount of offsets for the truly unavoidable leftovers. The IPCC makes this clear: emissions must be reduced as near to zero as possible first, with removals only balancing what’s left.

That’s it.

Net Zero (in science) = Real Zero plus small flexible mop-up.

Net Zero (in Canberra) = “plant magic trees in 2040 because Gina said no this week.”

See the difference?

How did our MPs get it so wrong?

Because Canberra is the first parliament in human history where the lobbyist writes the talking point, the ministerial note and the headline, all in the same hour, and nobody sees the conflict of interest. Nobody.

In 2023-24 alone, fossil fuel companies poured $3.8 million into Labor, Liberal and National party coffers. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting tipped in $500,000 to the Liberal Party; the largest single fossil fuel donation that year. Santos chipped in $71,500 to Labor. Woodside. Chevron. Adani. All buying seats at the table.

Net Zero was never meant to be a “vibe.” It is not a slogan. It is a carbon accounting closure point; a balance between emissions and removals that stops global warming.

But our MPs treat Net Zero like a horoscope.

One day it’s a threat to the bush.
The next day it’s a plot by the UN.
The day after that it’s “too expensive,” while gas companies post record profits.

They don’t misunderstand Net Zero.
They reframe Net Zero so nothing has to change.

Because the real version of Net Zero has one devastating implication they cannot say out loud:

Australia must stop expanding fossil fuel extraction.

We must stop digging things up, setting them on fire, and calling it “exports.”

That’s the bit they cannot face. Because that is the part that would rearrange the donor ecology.

The diagnosis

Net Zero was hijacked.

Hijacked by the fossil lobby.
Hijacked by media old enough to still think the atmosphere is a waste bin.
Hijacked by MPs who cannot see past the next election and barely understand the next question at estimates.

They turned Net Zero into a delay mechanism.
An alibi.
A permission slip.

Net Zero here became a way to keep burning; as long as you promise to plant some metaphorical fig leaf forest sometime after 2040.

Under the government’s Safeguard Mechanism, less than a third of “reductions” come from actual emission cuts. The rest? Offsets. Two-thirds smoke and mirrors. Even mining magnate Twiggy Forrest has called it out: “Now is the time to walk away from net zero 2050, that hasn’t been anything really but a con to maintain fossil fuels.”

And it gets worse.

Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter, but second-largest when measured by CO₂ emissions from those exports. In 2023, our coal and gas exports spewed 1.15 billion tonnes of CO₂  almost three times our domestic emissions.

Between 2023 and 2035, Australia’s fossil fuel exports alone will consume 7.5% of the world’s remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C.

That’s not policy.
That’s arson.

The fix

The answer is not “give up on Net Zero.”
The answer is to restore the original meaning.

Real Zero = phase out coal and gas extraction this decade.
Not “offsets.”
Not “carbon neutrality via counting tricks.”
Real.
Zero.

Scientists now show we need around a 70% reduction in net emissions by 2030 to put Australia on track to net zero by 2050. Labor’s 43% target? Not even close.

Our MPs’ problem is not IQ. It’s incentive.

They are not stupid muppets.
They are obedient muppets.

They dance for the hand inside the glove.

And that hand has always been fossil.

Over the last two decades, the resources sector has poured $136.7 million into Australian political parties and lobby groups; more than two-and-a-half times the property sector. The Minerals Council of Australia alone has passed on $33 million to the major parties.

If we want Net Zero to mean what it was meant to mean, we have to break the hand; not the puppet.

And once we do:

Net Zero becomes a destination again; not a punchline.

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