Red Earth, Red Meat and Red Herrings: How Australia got played in Washington

Written by urbanwronski

It was billed as a strategic masterstroke: Australia and the United States, arm in arm, securing the future of rare earths and critical minerals. What unfolded in Washington was less diplomacy than dinner theatre, complete with scripted banter and geological garnish.

The $8.5 billion deal, signed in October 2025, promised to fortify Western supply chains and counter China’s mineral dominance. Instead it delivered a presidential decree, a press-pack feeding frenzy and a roast of Ambassador Kevin Rudd so perfectly timed it could have been catered by Netflix.

Executive Theatre: Trump’s Gotcha Kabuki

When Andrew Clennell, Sky News’ Political Editor, lobbed a question about Rudd’s 2020 tweet calling Trump “the most destructive president in U.S. history”, the stage lights flared. Trump, ever the showman, grinned and fired back:

“I don’t like you either, and I probably never will.”

Cue laughter. Cue distraction. Cue the cameras closing in on the red meat of diplomatic drama.

But here’s the catch: there was no real heat. No genuine fallout. Just a smirk, a shrug and a well-rehearsed pause for applause. This wasn’t a gaffe. It was choreography. Trump in his element, Australia playing the guest star, the media as eager extras.

The line made global headlines, drowning out any serious discussion of the deal itself. The spectacle worked. The theatre did its job.

Media Framing: When Gonzo Becomes Gospel

Sky News positioned itself in the orchestra pit and conducted the noise rather than covering the score. Gotcha journalism became gonzo spectacle. The Rudd roast became the headline, the clickbait, the meme fodder. The real story, a complex, high-risk minerals agreement that locks Australia into another generation of extractive dependency, barely made the footnotes.

That is how media framing works: amplify the circus, bury the substance. Governance becomes gossip. By the time the chat-show echo chamber had finished dissecting Rudd’s tweet, no one asked whether the deal stacked up. The truth is, it doesn’t.

Credence? What Credence?

Pause and ask: what credence can we place in any trade or minerals agreement with the U.S., particularly one announced amid a “strategic emergency” declared by a president with a documented history of stiffing contractors, reversing commitments and treating international agreements like rough drafts? The U.S. trade agenda under this administration has been transactional, chaotic and punitive.

And yet here we are, sprinting headfirst into a pact as though it were some Grand Final banner. The only thing “free” about the ballyhooed “free” trade agreements we make with the U.S. is how costly they turn out to be. Let’s call it what it is: a free-for-all.

Trade History: The AUSFTA Warning

Australia is no stranger to shifty bilateral trade deals with the U.S. The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement, effective from 1 January 2005, promised profound gains. Critics argue it didn’t deliver. One analysis found that Australia and the U.S. ended up reducing trade with the rest of the world by some US$53 billion after AUSFTA came into force; trade diversion, not gain.

The deal delivered tariff cuts and access for American companies, but for Australia the benefits were limited. Exports to the U.S. grew more slowly than imports. We remain a net importer from the U.S., having ceded ground in manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and media.

If one of Australia’s most feverishly promoted trade deals fell short, why are we treating this minerals pact as some kind of lucky break? Is the MAGA-Murdoch con-artistry so irresistable? Or are we blessed with leaders who are too terrified to stand up to team Trump?

Resource Nationalism: Australia, the Ethical Quarry

Let’s look past the flash bulbs and read the fine print.

Australia commits around A$1 billion upfront, fast-tracks mining approvals and creates “bespoke mechanisms” to grease regulatory wheels. In return, the United States secures raw inputs for its defence and tech sectors. Australia provides the dirt, the risk and the environmental liability. We are not partners. We are the mine. A hole in the ground

Australia holds at least 4 per cent of the world’s rare-earth reserves. But production and value-adding is minimal. China still dominates refining and fabrication. So Australia digs. Others profit.

Extraction is messy, slow and expensive. The promise of “strategic independence” is seductive. But the path is lined with taxpayer subsidies, opaque offtake agreements and everything is drenched in the sickly-sweet syrup of spin.

Indigenous land rights? Delayed. Environmental safeguards? Trimmed or waived. Public consultation? Reduced to a checkbox. Everything sacrificed at the altar of urgency.

Sovereignty that depends on digging holes for someone else’s supply chain is a curious kind of freedom.

Energy, Emissions and the Climate Question

Here’s where the “net-zero” narrative deserves a reality check.

Mining and processing rare earths is extraordinarily energy-intensive. One modelling study estimates primary energy intensity at 110,000 kWh per tonne of ore processed, with CO₂ emissions exceeding 20 tonnes per tonne of rare-earth product in some cases.

China dominates roughly 69 per cent of global rare-earth production and over 90 per cent of processing capacity. So while the rhetoric is about decarbonisation, the industrial reality is that “green” technologies rest on a mountain of profoundly un-green supply chains.

Are we cooking the books again by hiding emissions behind “critical minerals”? If “net zero” means outsourcing the dirty work and importing the shiny end-products, then we might as well give ourselves a pat on the back and call it progress.

Historical Warning: The Gallium Ghost of Pinjarra

Let’s reflect on how this story played out before. In the late 1980s a French chemical company opened a gallium plant at Pinjarra, Western Australia, with a planned output of around 50 tonnes a year. Concentrate was shipped overseas, analysis was done abroad, lead times stretched to six months and costs ballooned. The plant closed by the early 1990s.

Today’s “new” deal shows the same markers: ambitious output, imported processing, overseas testing labs and sovereign underwriting. China then, and now, dominates the midstream. The regulatory and environmental burdens that sunk Pinjarra remain. Yet the corporate media cheerleading has only grown louder. Shriller. Even more irrational. Mining is our national religion and the press its choir of true believers.

Coda: Promises Versus Deliverables

Promise Status Notes
US$8.5 billion pipeline of investments over next six months Headline made Underlying commitments mostly letters of interest, not drawn finance
Up to 10 per cent global gallium supply from WA plant Promised Project still in feasibility; concessional financing required
Australia becomes magnet-manufacturing hub Announced Processing and fabrication capacity remain minimal; value chain offshore
Fast-tracked approvals & “bespoke mechanisms” Underway Risk of reduced scrutiny and public liability
Australia reduces dependence on China for critical minerals Stated aim China still dominates mining, refining and magnets
Indigenous land rights & stronger environmental safeguards Stated intention Acceleration risks undermining consultation and consent
Real manufacturing jobs and sovereign capability Aspiration Jobs and value-add still future-dated; raw extraction dominates now

Australia deserves transparency, not theatre. If there’s real money, show the tranches. If there’s real value-adding, show the plants, the jobs, the power bills and the emissions ledger. If there’s genuine sovereignty, prove it with magnets made here, not with staged handshakes abroad. The same regulatory and environmental burdens that sank Pinjarra still haunt us. But the corporate media chorus has grown louder—shriller, more ecstatic, less tethered to reality. Mining isn’t just our national religion anymore. It’s our liturgy, our sacrament, our holy writ.

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